I was opposed to the Lisbon treaty at the first referendum. It was with a certain relish on the 12th June 2008 that I strolled into a national school in the heart of Cork City and made my mark upon the ballot paper, joining the ranks of 862,000 others throughout the State who voted no and brought about much drama and heartache for officials in Dublin and Brussels. Fourteen months on, what has changed?

Those who led the no campaign have had certainly had a rather mixed fate. Libertas has been vanquished from the political scene, barely making a mark in most nations. Declan Ganley came close, ultimately though he was unable to overcome the vitriolic hatred that was reserved for him in certain quarters, his pledge to play no role in the upcoming referendum campaign shall undoubtedly make the entire episode much duller.

Campaigning in referenda can be a very difficult affair, a particularly troublesome reality is becoming tarnished by association. Those who oppose the Lisbon treaty are generally a very motley crew and in truth I abhor most of them – the religion zealots, the nationalist dinosaurs, the pacifists, the horribly misinformed who somehow believe Europe shall persecute them in every facet of their daily lives – truly some weird creatures emerge from the woodwork during these campaigns.

My principles have always been clear. The European Union is and always has been of immense benefit to our republic, developing our infrastructure in an era when that was far beyond the means of our government, creating a free trade zone which offers the innovative Irish entrepreneur an incredible opportunity to easily access 26 other member states.

However the union is unquestionably a flawed entity. My argument has always centered upon the question of what kind of European Union we agreed to join in 1973 and what we witness today. I would argue that many of our powers and national vetoes were sacrificed to European institutions until such a point that Dáil Éireann and the Irish Supreme Court have been relegated to merely ratifying decisions of superior bodies within the European Union structure on numerous points of policy. The chance of turning this tide are slim.

With a degree of reluctance I shall be supporting Lisbon on this occasion. Ireland’s return to economic prosperity is predicated on recapturing the confidence of international investors, without the captains of industry being reassured of our firm commitment to an Ireland that places itself at the heart of the invaluable economic asset that is the E.U. we shall stagnate for another decade, drifting aimlessly from one punitive national budget to another. The harsh truth is that Ireland cannot possibly hope to regain the economic stature we so recently held by charting our own course.

The Lisbon Treaty shall be put to a vote of the people once more on October 2nd, I would predict a victory for the yes campaign in the 55-60% range, an unpopular Government shall inevitably drag back support for a treaty they advocate by a couple of percentage points but the campaign shall be of such a nature that those driven to desperation by months of economic difficulty shall nudge Ireland into the yes column. A collective sigh of relief shall echo across the continent.

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Ian Gallagher, Green Party candidate for the Cork North Central ward, has launched a website at CorkCity.tv in his bid to clinch a seat on the city council. Now aside from the fact that it would be something of minor miracle for him to secure election in an already crowded race and in a territory where the Green Party generally fare quite poorly, it does bring a new dimension to a local election race – a fully functioning website with all the important elements, blog, photos, press releases and most interestingly video presentations of all his policy proposals – virtual canvassing in essence.

Those attuned to the make-up of the constituency however would point out that an online campaign is probably most ineffecitive in a ward such as Cork North Central, to quote some facts from the Constituency Profiles published by Oireachtas researchers (referring to the entire Dáil constituency but still relevant):

Households in Cork North-Central are less likely to have a PC (51.4% vs. 56.6%) and access to the Internet (41.5% vs. 46.7%) than other households in the State. However, the share of households with broadband is close to the national average.In 2006, 18.9% of households in Cork North-Central had broadband Internet access compared with 20% for the State as a whole. (pdf)

Somehow I still think the tried and trusted method of pressing the flesh on door to door canvasses, backed up with a prompt and efficient handling of queries is the only way that shall give the candidate a fighting chance on polling day. The internet has a role to play in all modern political campaigns but at present it should represent a minor portion of the campaign rather than becoming the main tool the candidate relies upon.

Barry Roche writes a profile for the City Council elections in today’s Irish Times. His opening really sums up the challenge Fianna Fáil faces nationally:

THE BIG question in Cork city, as it is nationwide, is to what extent Fianna Fáil candidates can appeal to personal loyalties to insulate themselves from public anger over the party’s performance in Government and its handling of an economic crisis which has seen unemployment in the city rise by over 7,000 in the year to April 2009.

The analysis of the wards is pretty much in line with my own thoughts. His commentary on the ward I have the most interest in, North Central, reflects the general consensus of most politicos north of the Lee:

The second placed Fianna Fáil candidate looks set for a fight for the last seat with Jackie Connolly, who narrowly missed out on a seat here in 2004 for Sinn Féin but is now running for the Workers Party, Thomas Gould of Sinn Féin or Labour’s second candidate, Paddy Brown.

Everything truly comes down to the extent to which the Fianna Fáil vote shall actually decrease on election day as compared to 2004. If national polls are meaningful in a local elections situation then we are in for considerable upheaval however the degree to which the personality of individual candidates matters in council races cannot be discounted.

The full notice of poll detailing all candidates who are standing in each ward and includes their address, occupation, political party and proposer is now available. (pdf)

The basic outline:

North West – 4 Seats – 8 Candidates

Michael Crowley – Workers’ Party

Tony Fitzgerald* – Fianna Fáil

Dave McCarthy* – Non-Party

Nicholas McMurry – Green Party

Jonathan O’Brien* – Sinn Féin

Joe O’Callaghan* – Fine Gael

Michael O’Connell* – Labour

John Sheehan – Fianna Fáil

North Central – 5 Seats – 12 Candidates

Mick Barry* – Socialist Party

Paddy Brown – Labour

Catherine Clancy* – Labour

Jackie Connolly – Workers’ Party

Jim Cronin – Non-Party

Ian Gallagher – Green Party

Pat Gosch* – Fine Gael

Thomas Gould – Sinn Féin

Joe Kavanagh – Fine Gael

Kenneth Noel O’Flynn* – Fianna Fáil

Annette Spillane* – Non-Party

Damian Wallace* – Fianna Fáil

North East – 4 Seats – 9 Candidates

Tim Brosnan* – Fianna Fáil

Derek Connolly – Fine Gael

Pat Coughlan – Sinn Féin

Dave Keating – Socialist Party

John Kelleher* – Labour

Dara Murphy* – Fine Gael

Ted Tynan – Workers’ Party

Ken Walsh – Green Party

Dave Whyte – Non-Party

* = Sitting Councillor

Reverend Stephen Neill on his blog relays the transcript of Cllr. Michael O’Brien, former Mayor of Clonmel and member of Fianna Fáil, who appeared on Questions & Answers on Monday evening to address the appalling details outlined in the Ryan Report regarding institutional child abuse by the religious orders. His words are almost too much to bear, the shocking truth that he and so many other victims speak of is almost incomprehensible. How the supposed guardians of young souls perpetrated such acts is truly beyond all belief.

Update: Just corrected point in post, actually Mayor of Clonmel. In Examiner today:

Mr O’Brien, 75, a former long-serving member of Clonmel Corporation who was elected lord mayor in the early 1990s, has been campaigning for the rights of fellow victims through his Right to Peace organisation since he went public with his own experiences in 1999.

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The report of the Commission to Inquire into Child Abuse, a 2,600 page tome chronicling some of the most monstrous acts of abuse that plagued institutions across this state for over a generation offers an appalling vista on the Ireland of yesteryear. There are many tragedies emanating from this dark period of Irish history. Foremost of course is the ruination of many young lives whose futures were irreparably scarred, forever burdened by this violation of trust and all concepts of morality that was probably far beyond their comprehension. No act of contrition shall ever fully remedy the indignities and betrayals that they suffered.

A second tragedy though is that the legacy of many dedicated and pious souls has been forever tarnished, the incredible acts of bringing education to the impoverished masses, of rising nations from ignorance to understanding, by orders composed of decent individuals who genuinely only ever sought to bring some Christian compassion into an otherwise cruel world, shall be forever viewed as murky in substance, tainted.

My generation shall undoubtedly turn away from what for decades was effectively the established church in ever greater numbers, dogmas on matters of morality may still reverberate in churches across the nation but such teachings ring hollow, any institute which abandons its own people, shelters the perpetrators of heinous acts and indeed allows such abusers move from congregation to congregation, is simply striped of all moral authority.

In the words of Archbishop Diarmuid Martin in today’s Irish Times:

Somehow along the way the most essential dimension of the life of the followers of Jesus Christ got lost by many. The Christian message is a message of love. What the Ryan commission recounts is sadly so very far removed from that. In Jesus’s eyes the poor deserve the best and they did not receive it here.

Looking back to last November I wrote a blog post, all of which is still relevant today:

“One of the greatest scandals of recent times was the deal struck between the Department of Eduction, then led by Minister Michael Woods, and the religious organizations who controlled the institutes where the appalling abuses which scarred the lives of so many occurred. In effect the deal recused these organizations of the vast majority of their financial liabilities and transferred unlimited liability to the State, the reality is ordinary taxpayers have propped up these bodies and paid an outrageous proportion of the damages for acts perpetrated by their members. Certainly I would agree that the State must pay a portion of the damages, there were great failures on the part of those who were supposed to inspect these facilities, however the burden shifted to the State is beyond all belief. Today’s Examiner notes that the religious bodies shall pay a mere 12% of the expected claims and the estimated total figure of €1.1 billion to be granted by the Residential Institutions Redress Board (RIRB) is still being adjusted. For once I would fully endorse the words of Fine Gael Education Spokesman Brian Hayes, “It was probably one of the most reckless, incompetent and financially illiterate deals that was ever struck.”

A shameful mark on our nation’s history.”

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The Northside of Cork City is spread across Sundays’ Well, Fairhill, Knocknaheeny, Shandon, Gurranabraher, The Glen, Blackpool, Mayfield, Montenotte, Mayfield and Tivoli. There are over 35,000 potential voters currently represented by 15 councillors, though at the June 5th elections only 13 councillors shall be returned due to the boundary commission’s report, further reducing the area’s influence over Cork politics.

Fianna Fáil holds four seats at present, Tony Fitzgerald in North West, Kenneth O’Flynn & Damien Wallace in North Central and Tim Brosnan in North East. David McCarthy was previously a party member but resigned in 2007 to contest the General Election as an Independent. The party is putting forward five candidates for the June local elections in what shall undoubtedly be challenging electoral circumstances.

North West

Reduced from five to four seat constituency, former territory in Mardyke transferred to South West Ward, currently represented by 1 Fianna Fáil, 1 Sinn Féin, 1 Labour, 1 Independent (former FF) and 1 Fine Gael.

Five into four just doesn’t compute and one sitting councillor is certain to lose out. Nationally Fine Gael have witnessed an upsurge in the polls but Fine Gael candidate Joe O’Callaghan has proven a poor electoral performer, losing in both the 1999 and 2004 elections, admittedly this was in his previous ward of North Central and O’Callaghan has served in the Council for almost two years since his co-option when Colm Burke went to the European Parliament. As investors should be advised when purchasing equities “past performance is not indicative of future performance”, but perceptions are slow to change and a candidate twice rejected by the electorate certainly faces a steeper climb that most. David McCarthy (Ind) and Jonathan O’Brien (SF) are secure with strong personal followings, Michael O’Connell of Labour is likely to be returned with strong levels of anti-Government sentiment evident amongst voters. This leaves Fianna Fáil with two candidates, sitting councillor Tony Fitzgerald and first time candidate Dr. John Sheehan, a general practitioner in Blackpool. A perception in electoral circles is that the most electable profession would be that of the doctor – mainly down to the high volume of people they come into contact with on a daily basis and being automatically perceived as highly compotent individuals – though these are far from ordinary times for any Fianna Fáil candidate and the presumption that the incumbent bears an advantage in any electoral race will have its affect upon the race.

Prediction: David McCarthy (Ind), Jonathan O’Brien (SF), Michael O’Connell (Labour) and 1 Fianna Fáil. Joe O’Callghan (FG) to lose seat.

North Central

One of only two wards of six in the city to retain it’s current number of councillors, a slight alteration to the border led to a marginal increase in the population of the ward, currently represented by 2 Fianna Fáil, 1 Socialist, 1 Fine Gael and 1 Labour.

Most amenable to left wing candidates the North Central ward represents a challenging ward to predict as candidates including Thomas Gould (SF), Jackie Connolly (Workers’ Party, Former SF) and Paddy Brown (Labour) could seek to gain the last seat, depending on how well the transfers break down amongst them. The distribution of the votes of minor left wing candidates such as Jim Cronin (Ind) and Annette Spillane (Ind, who actually is a sitting councillor in the North East ward but failed to fill out her nomination form properly) should also assist Gould, Connolly and Brown in vying for a seat. The question however then arises as to who would have to lose out for this to occur. Patricia Gosch attained the lowest vote in 2004 with 0.58 of the quota however with Fine Gael’s popularity and the support of sitting Northside T.D., Bernard Allen, she should retain this seat. Mick Barry (Socialist) pulled off quite a coup in 2004 delivering 1390 votes (1.05 of quota), Barry has remained prominent in the community organising protests related to issues such as the Mercy Hospital and local bus routes whilst continually writing opinion pieces in publications such as the Evening Echo, though it is likely with a somewhat broader field of candidates than 2004 his vote may be slightly reduced though his seat must be percieved as safe. Likewise both Fianna Fáil candidates, Kenneth O’Flynn and Damien Wallace, retain high profiles and the support of a sitting and former deputy, Noel O’Flynn and Danny Wallace respectively.

Prediction: The sitting five councillors Clancy (Labour), Barry (Socialist), Gosch (FG), O’Flynn (FF) and Wallace (FF) to be returned. If vote on June 5th proves particularly low for Fianna Fáil candidates, would predict Paddy Brown (Labour) to take final seat.

North East

As in North West has been reduced from five to four seater constituency, currently represented by 1 Fianna Fáil, 1 Fine Gael, 1 Labour, 2 Independents (1 now disbanded PD’s, 1 former SF)

With the retirement of Mairin Quill (formerly of PD’s) and shock clerical error by Annette Spillane (Ind, Former SF), only three sitting councillors are now actually contesting this four seat constituency. Mairin Quill, a stalwart of Cork politics, received 1169 votes (1.04 of quota) at the last election. It would be viewed as likely that the lion-share of this voters shall favour Dara Murphy, the sitting FG councillor, which should allow him to comfortably retain his seat. Tim Brosnan like all Fianna Fáil candidates faces his own electoral troubles but a strong vote of 1,022 in the last election indicates a good ability to attract voters and should be returned to City Hall, likewise for John Kelleher of Labour. The remaining seat then poses an interesting quesion, shall it return to Sinn Féin under whose banner Spillane originally won the seat in 2004 or another candidate of the left persuasion? My own suspicions would be following the unique events of Spillane’s departure, an opening has emerged for former councillor Ted Tynan to regain his former seat. Other possibilities are the second FG candidate, Derek Connolly, heavily involved with the local Brian Dillon’s G.A.A. club, or David Whyte who is running as an Independent, formerly a member of Fianna Fáil.

Prediction: Murphy (FG), Brosnan (FF) and Kelleher (Lab) to be returned. The final seat is really down to a toss of the dice, it’s between Pat Coughlan of Sinn Féin and Ted Tynan (Workers’ Party), if forced to pick – I’d take a chance on Tynan.

A brief assessment of the changes in Cork City Council since the previous local election in 2004. 31 councillors represent a city in which according to the 2009 Register of Electors (pdf) almost 82,000 people are registered to vote. The city is divided into six wards with the number of councillors representing each ward varying between 5 and 6 (soon to be wards of between 4 and 7 after boundary alterations.)

The current breakdown of the city council by party membership is as follows:

Fianna Fáil – 10

Fine Gael – 8

Labour – 6

Non Party – 4

Sinn Féin – 2

Socialist Party – 1

Overall this has reprsented a slight altertation in numbers since the 2004 election. Fianna Fáil has decreased by one through the resignation of David McCarthy in North West to run as an Independent candidate in the 2007 General Election. Fine Gael, Labour and Sinn Féin remain at the same level however during the intervening period Sinn Féin gained one councillor with the adoption of Fiona Kerins in South Central upon the death of Independent Con O’Connell in 2007 but Cllr. Annette Spillane resigned her membership of Sinn Féin in 2009 to become an Independent. Mairin Quill was elected as a Progressive Democrat councillor and opted not to join any other party since the P.D.’s disbandment as she is retiring at this election, Chris O’Leary resigned his membership of the Green Party in January of this year over opposition to the Green’s role in Government and has remained an Independent.

A number of other individuals have joined the council since the 2004 election, mainly due to dual mandate rules which prohibit dual membership of a local authority and the Oireachtas or European Parliament.

South West

John Buttimer (FG) replaced his brother Jerry Buttimer upon election to Seanad Eireann in July 2007.

South Central

As mentioned above Fiona Kerins was adopted as a member upon the death of Con O’Connell.

Ciaran Lynch T.D. (Lab) was replaced upon his election by Lorraine Kingston.

South East

Deirdre Clune T.D. (FG) was replaced upon her election by Laura McGonigle.

North West

Colm Burke M.E.P. (FG) earned his seat at the European Parliament in his position as official replacment for Simon Coveney T.D. who resigned his European seat upon election to the Dáil, was himself replaced by Joe O’Callaghan – an individual with an interesting history having both won and lost a seat as a Labour candidate in the North Central ward (1991 & 1999) before again losing in the NC ward in 2004 as a Fine Gael candidate.

North Central

Gary O’Flynn (FF) was replaced by Kenneth O’Flynn in December 2008.

North East

No changes in personnel since 2004.

Therefore it is clear that a constant ebb and flow of party membership and personnel exists within local government, each can be explained by the relevant local circumanstances but it certainly makes surveying the business of the council that little bit more interesting.

Update: A full breakdown of all current members of Cork City Council along with their contact details and party affiliation can be found on the Cork City Council website.

A useful little site has emerged within the last number of weeks for those of us who love reading of political developments all across Cork, CorkPolitics.ie collates the statements of various candidates and representatives in both city and county and publishes them online, meaning you can read newsworthy items before their appearance in the likes of the Evening Echo or Corkman. Just one more little tool for the political junkies.

Meaning of course you can peruse anything including increasingly desperate PR stunts, such as Colm Burke MEP making another attempt to maintain his Cork vote:

Colm, who rather unfortunately (as MEP’s go, he works hard) shall be ingloriously dumped from office by a vastly more popular running mate, Sean Kelly – Former President of the G.A.A., keeps up the long maintained political tradition of trying anything for a vote.

Two weeks today to the election, I’m sure they’ll be plenty of interesting statements along the way.

Membership of Fianna Fáil isn’t popular in certain quarters at the best of times, certainly in the current climate of slashed salaries, double digit unemployment and hazy predictions of when we may expect to see cheerier times, such affiliation is frowned upon by an ever greater proportion of the ordinary people. Fianna Fáil though has persevered for 83 years, our party has sustained a litany of crises (both international and internal), outlived generations of opposition deputies who ranged from impressive orators to rural mavericks and governed this state for a considerable portion of its history. We have witnessed many evolutions, both in style of leadership and expressions of policy, with an ever consistent belief and pride in our small nation’s ability and its peoples capacity.

The local and European elections shall pose a considerable challenge, the party shall meet considerable resistance from citizens who have personally suffered from unpalatable decisions which the Government was forced to embrace, however notions of a total electoral meltdown are much exaggerated. No man made institution is perfect and Fianna Fáil too suffers of human frailties, the arrogance and hubris of some shall result in seat losses and a reduced support base, however those councillors who have demonstrated a capacity to work over their term of office shall face far fewer obstacles, a hard working incumbent shall always posses a massive advantage in local elections.

I’ll be in the thick of the action for the remaining two and a half weeks here in Cork. Here’s hoping for fine weather and interesting tales.